Job Market Stagnates as 4.1 Percent Unemployment Rate Continues for 3rd Month

The number of available jobs in Australia has undershot estimates predicted by forecasters, with the nation’s unemployment rate sitting at 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows an increase of 15,900 jobs in October, falling short of the estimated 25,000 new job vacancies.
Head of Labour Statistics Bjorn Jarvis said that employment grew by nearly 16,000, while the number of unemployed people increased by around 8,000.
“This was the third month in a row that the unemployment rate had been at 4.1 percent,” Jarvis said.
“This is around 0.6 percentage points above its recent low of 3.5 percent in June 2023, but is 1.1 percentage points below March 2020, when it was 5.2 percent.”
The number of unemployed people in October was 67,000 higher than a year ago, but was still 82,000 people lower than in March 2020.
Jarvis said that while employment grew in October, it was only by 0.1 percent, making it the slowest rate of job growth in recent months.
“This was lower than each of the previous six months, when employment rose by an average of 0.3 percent per month,” he said.
Population growth in October outpaced the small rise in employment and unemployment, leading to a small dip in the participation rate to 67.1 percent, while the employment-to-population ratio remained at 64.4 percent, its historical high.
Hours worked also rose by 0.1 percent in October, in line with the 0.1 percent rise in employment. This was the sixth month in a row where hours worked matched the rate of employment growth.
“Since the start of the pandemic, growth in hours worked has been more varied than employment. However, in recent months we have been seeing a more consistent relationship between them,” Jarvis said.
“We expect the market will slacken as we move into 2025, but the timing and magnitude of this easing remains highly uncertain,” he said.
“Forward indicators of labour demand are still resilient, which will keep some momentum in the labour market—and upward pressure on inflation—for the time being.”
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that the weaker jobs growth provided some slight signs of cooling, following a prolonged period of outperforming expectations.
“While it seems improbable that this slowdown will push the unemployment rate to the RBA’s forecast of 4.3 percent by December, it provides the central bank with the breathing room to maintain its focus on inflation and keep rates in restrictive territory into year-end, all without any significant signs of deterioration in the labour market,” he said.